AI's Growing Hand in Modern Elections

Imagine a world where you can’t trust the videos you see of political candidates or the news articles shared on your social media feed. Could this be the future we will face as our electoral systems are increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence? 

Rishi Sunak’s recent decision to call a General Election this July has sparked many exciting discussions across various sectors, including tech. One topic generating significant interest is the paper from the Centre for Emerging Technology and Security (CETaS), a research centre based at The Alan Turing Institute titled “AI- Enabled Influence Operations: The Threat to the UK General Election”. In this blog I will outline some of the key findings of the report and explore AI’s growing hand in modern elections.

Note - the paper is well worth a read in full and can be found here: https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/ai-enabled-influence-operations-threat-uk-general-election 


The Paper 

This is a project that was started well in advance of the UK General Election announcement last week. In fact this project was inspired by the fact over 2.8 BILLION people across 64 countries will be going to the polls in 2024, including some of the world’s largest democracies; the USA and India. This may be one of the biggest years for democracies to date, and it is coming at a time where AI is seemingly having it’s biggest year, with the launch of Chat GPT-4 and Google Gemini Pro 1.5 in just the last two months. The research done by CETaS was put together after a comprehensive review of recent AI developments and their applications in disinformation campaigns, especially focusing on recent election cycles globally. The study involved the analysis of case studies, existing literature, and input from experts in AI, cybersecurity, and political science. 

Key Findings 

Outline of the Threat Landscape: 


The paper gives us a really comprehensive outline of the threats potentially created by the rise of sophisticated AI. The threats outlined in the paper include: 
  • Deepfakes showing candidates in false or compromising situations. 
  • Automated bot networks spreading vast amounts of quickly in rapid time. 
  • Hyper-targeted social media campaigns generated personalised disinformation for target groups. 
These tools can create highly persuasive fake content and spread it rapidly, making it difficult for the public to separate fact from fiction. The high volume and speed through which this content is created and shared makes it difficult to manage and tackle. 

Impact on Elections: 


These AI networks can undermine the integrity of the electoral process by spreading misinformation, suppressing voter turnout, and creating polarised environments, which last well beyond election results day. This can lead to distrust in democratic institutions and election outcomes. 

Technical and Policy Responses: 

The paper discusses potential countermeasures to the threat of AI, including: 
  • Advanced detection technologies for deepfakes. 
  • Collaborative efforts between tech companies and governments. 
  • Stricter regulations on social media platforms. 
  • Public awareness campaigns about AI-enabled disinformation. 
The current impact of AI on specific election results is limited, but these threats show signs of damaging the broader democratic system
Key finding from the CETaS paper.


Conclusion 


The article outlines and cautions against the growing sophistication of AI in disinformation and the urgent need for coordinated responses to safeguard electoral integrity. It was interesting to note that ‘the current impact of AI on specific election results is limited’, however the wider climate of distrust and polarisation created by AI generated content poses a threat to our wider systems of democracy which may extend beyond this current year of elections. I highly recommend reading the paper and other references noted below! Stay tuned for the next publication from CETaS on this subject in September 2024. 

Further Reading 

https://cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications/ai-enabled-influence-operations-threat-uk-general-election 
 

References 

Sam Stockwell, Megan Hughes, Phil Swatton and Katie Bishop, “AI- Enabled Influence Operations: The Threat to the UK General Election,” CETaS Briefing Papers (May 2024) 
https://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/question?question_id=9115&database_theme=293 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/23/2024-global-elections-tracker-voting-dates-us-india-indonesia-belarus-haiti-pakistan-full-list https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_popep/default/table?lang=en

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